A recent uptick in mortgage rates may be showing signs of a reversal after new data from Freddie Mac reveals a second straight week of declines.
According to the company’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped by nearly ten basis points to 3.04% for the week ending April 15, compared to 3.13% the prior week and 3.31% a year ago.
Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 2.35%, compared to 2.42% the prior week and 2.80% a year ago, and 5–year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages stood at a rate of 2.8%, compared to 2.92% a week ago and 3.34% a year ago.
Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said that the economy appears to be improving on the demand side, but that the supply of a variety of goods and materials remain scarce.
“As a result of this imbalance, pricing pressures are building and causing inflation to rise,” Khater said.
However, the mortgage giant expects a modest increase for the remainder of the year, forecasting 30-year rates of 3.2% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022.
Additionally, Freddie Mac’s quarterly forecast estimates house price growth to be 6.6% in 2021, before slowing to 4.4% in 2022. Home sales are expected to reach 7.1 million in 2021 and fall to 6.7 million homes in 2022.
Meanwhile, purchase originations are expected to increase to $1.7 trillion in 2021 before dropping to $1.6 trillion in 2022 and refinance originations are expected to be $1.8 trillion in 2021 before falling to $770 billion in 2022.
Overall, annual mortgage origination levels are expected to be $3.5 trillion in 2021 and $2.4 trillion 2022.
The mortgage giant’s recent analysis of the U.S. housing market found a 3.8 million shortfall of single-family needed to meet the country’s demand, according to the Wall Street Journal, representing a 52% rise in the nation’s home shortage compared with 2018.
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